#1 What will be the economic impact of the new COVID-19 disease? von mutaldelicate 25.12.2020 16:21

Covid-19 has compelled various governments to resort to complete/partial lock down in order to stop the spread of this virus which is highly contagious although fatality rate is comparatively low at 1.4%. Moreover, elderly people form the big chunk of victims. Social distancing is the proven and tested way of containing any epidemic caused by virus. Due to lock down production of goods and services are being affected because workers are not able to go to their work place. Very few people are being able to work from their home. Social distancing is paralyzing transportation, tourism and businesses in a big way. For example in the month of February 2020 China's purchasing managing index (PMI) for manufactured goods fell to 36 while PMI for services fell to just 29. Any reading below 50 on PMI indicates contractions in economic activities. It is quite evident from the above mentioned figures that economic activities contracted in the month of February 2020 in China which happens to be the primary source of this virus. It is widely expected that Chinese economy may contract in Q1 of 2020. At present China contribute roughly 27% of global GDP ( PPP) and roughly 15% of global GDP ( Nominal). It consumes 14% of global crude oil production. It consumes roughly 50% of basic metals produced globally. Chinese economy is a big economy in export and imports both ways. If it contacts it will surely have negative impact on other economies and global economies as a whole. Now other European countries and USA have come under heavy attack of Covid-19 virus and lock down imposed by various governments is causing disruption in economic activities their also. According to an estimate global GDP growth rate may come down sharply to just 1.5% in Q1 2020. This epidemic do have some positive also like cheap energy in the form of low crude oil prices and much higher demand face masks , medical equipment for testing, vitamins etc. Yet on combined basis Covid-19 virus will have serious economic consequences and for that matter political consequences if this epidemic keeps spreading and its containment takes much longer period of time.

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